Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
