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Within the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning marked its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.