Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure
Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
